We like to say that fantasy sports are ultimately games of opinion. And sometimes those opinions are wide-ranging.
Welcome to the polarizing player series. Today we hit the pitchers, all starters. Next week, we’ll tackle the hitters.
Tarik Skubal, Tigers, and Paul Skenes, Pirates
No one disputes the talent on these guys, it’s just a matter of if you want to spend your first or second round pick on a pitcher. We also have to acknowledge that Skenes is still just 22, with just 23 MLB starts under his belt. How might he handle a full season of workload? We can only project.
My Call: Because the pitching pool looks fairly deep after Skubal and Skenes, I’m going to dip into the second and third tiers, not wanting to fall behind on my offensive building. But it’s not going to be fun watching these two guys dominate for other people’s teams.
Corbin Burnes, Diamondbacks
Burnes received the expected big check from Arizona, but what pitcher are they getting? He’s stepping into the age-30 season and his strikeout rate has tumbled significantly over the last three years. The Yahoo draft market remains bullish, as Burnes carries an ADP in the mid 30s.
My Call: Even with deferments built in, I would have been leery of giving Burnes a six-year contract. And the NL West has problems on the schedule — the Dodgers are obviously loaded, the Padres can ruin your afternoon and despite a mediocre Colorado lineup, Coors Field is still a pesky assignment. It’s possible I won’t roster Burnes at all in 2025.
Jacob deGrom, Rangers
When he’s healthy, deGrom is the best pitcher of the era. He’s banked a pair of Cy Young awards, and his 2021 mini-season (15 starts, 1.08 ERA, 0.554 WHIP) belongs in a time capsule. Of course, deGrom has made just 20 starts in the past three seasons, he’s had a second Tommy John surgery and he’s entering his age-37 season.
My Call: Longtime friend Gene McCaffrey suggests this idea: get some of the deGrom but not all of the deGrom. That covers any possible FOMO, but also protects you if deGrom breaks again. My co-manager and I hold an inexpensive keeper option on deGrom in one league, so that probably covers my investment for this spring. The lofty ADP (51.4) feels like wishcasting. That said, there is no player I’d rather be wrong about — as a pure fan, 30 deGrom starts would be delightful, appointment television. But I’m not going to assemble my rosters on a wish, either.
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Brandon Pfaadt, Diamondbacks
He misses plenty of bats and the ERA estimators outline just how unlucky Pfaadt was last year. That said, he’s also had homer problems in his brief career, and he’s not even guaranteed a starting spot in the rotation to open the year.
My Call: I thought Pfaadt would be on my upside/breakout list when we entered the teeth of draft season, but as he’s become somewhat trendy in the industry (and thus, more expensive in drafts), I’ve found myself backing off somewhat. There are other potential breakout arms who probably will cost less at the table.
Roki Sasaki, Dodgers
He’s looked almost too good to be true thus far, with a deep arsenal of pitches and one dominant spring start under his belt. And he’s merely entering his age-23 season; it’s scary to think that Sasaki is still on the escalator. Obviously, he’s supported by the deepest roster in baseball.
My Call: The ADP keeps rising on Sasaki as his early unveiling to America has been exciting. And I’ve spent a few weeks talking about my growing concern that the Dodgers will employ a sensitive load-management strategy for six months, given the near-certainty that they’ll be in the playoffs again. That said, I might have to force one Sasaki share onto a roster of mine, lest I be locked out of this spectacle all year.
Spencer Strider, Braves
After a dominant 2023 season, Strider had a washout 2024 — his elbow started hurting in April and soon UCL damage was discovered. Ultimately he had surgery on the elbow — UCL surgery, not Tommy John surgery — and missed the rest of the year.
My Call: The hope is that Strider will be able to pitch for Atlanta early in the 2025 season, perhaps as soon as May. Injury optimism is not my favorite game with pitchers, so I’ll probably ignore Strider unless his ADP falls outside pick 200 (it won’t). I don’t like to draft into injuries, they’re going to find you anyway.
José Berríos, Blue Jays
Once upon a time Berríos was a touted prospect, but he’s settled into the good-not-great file for most of his career. His ERA has been in the mid-3s for four of the last five seasons, and his career WHIP of 1.231 is acceptable but not a needle-mover.
My Call: I’m willing to give Berríos some credit for his durability — in his last six non-pandemic seasons, he’s made 32 starts every year. The Blue Jays acquired defensive whiz Andrés Giménez and Toronto’s park is run-neutral over the last three seasons. It’s too late in the game to consider Berríos a future Cy Young winner, but his boring consistency is welcome for the middle of my pitching staffs. Not every pick has to be a hair-on-fire choice; sometimes a floor pick is the right move, especially when he’s going after pick 200.
