Duke basketball has plenty to play for this weekend in Chapel Hill.
Entering their matchup with rival UNC (20-11, 13-6 ACC) on Saturday (6:30 p.m., ESPN) at the Smith Center, the second-ranked Blue Devils (27-3, 18-1 ACC) are aiming to secure an ACC regular-season championship and maintain their standing as one of the top teams in the nation.
ACC Tournament seeding isn’t set and Duke wants to maintain its position at the top in NCAA Tournament projections ahead of Selection Sunday and March Madness.
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Here’s a breakdown of where the Blue Devils are ahead of their game against the Tar Heels and what’s at stake Saturday.
Duke basketball ACC Tournament seeding scenarios
Believe it or not, Duke could be as low as the No. 3 seed at the ACC Tournament in Charlotte. With a win, the Blue Devils would complete a record-breaking run with 19 wins in the league and their first outright regular-season championship since 2022. That would give them the top seed at the Spectrum Center, slotting them in Thursday’s noon quarterfinal game.
If Duke loses to UNC, it brings several scenarios into play with Louisville and Clemson. The Cardinals would clinch the No. 1 seed with a victory over Stanford and Blue Devils loss. The Tigers, who handed Duke its lone loss in the league, can clinch the top seed with a win against Virginia Tech, along with losses by the Blue Devils and Cards. In that scenario, Duke would be the No. 3 seed and playing in the 9:30 p.m. game Thursday. If Duke, Clemson and Louisville lose, the Blue Devils will be the No. 1 seed.
Duke basketball NCAA Tournament projections
ESPN: Joe Lunardi has the Blue Devils as the No. 2 overall seed, slated to be the No. 1 seed in the East Region, as of Friday morning. Duke, which would be at the Lenovo Center in Raleigh for the first two rounds, would potentially play No. 8 UConn and No. 9 Vanderbilt in that scenario. The East Regional is played in Newark, New Jersey.
CBS Sports: Jerry Palm has Duke at the top of his NCAA Tournament projections as the No. 1 overall seed. Like ESPN, CBS has the Blue Devils in the East Region. No. 8 Creighton and No. 9 Gonzaga are matched up with Duke in Raleigh.
USA TODAY: This bracket projection has the Blue Devils as the No. 1 seed in the East, with a possible rematch against Kansas in play. The Jayhawks are the No. 8 seed in this bracket, matched up with No. 9 Vanderbilt.
On3: Duke is projected to be the No. 1 seed in the East, with No. 8 Mississippi State and No. 9 Creighton as the potential second-round game at the Lenovo Center.
Bracket Matrix: The Blue Devils are a No. 1 seed in all 92 of Bracket Matrix’s projections.
Duke basketball NCAA Tournament résumé
The Blue Devils are No. 1 in the NET rankings and on KenPom ahead of their game at UNC. Duke is seventh in wins above the bubble (WAB), which takes into account a team’s extra wins beyond what a typical bubble team would have against its schedule. Duke is 6-3 in Quad 1 games, with a 21-0 record against Q2-Q4 opponents. The Devils have big-time wins against Auburn, Arizona, Louisville and Illinois. They have a chance to add another Q1 victory to their résumé on Saturday at the Smith Center.
Rodd Baxley covers Duke, North Carolina and N.C. State for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding those teams? Send them to rbaxley@fayobserver.com.
This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: Duke basketball bracketology: March Madness projections ahead of UNC
