Keys to the Game and Scouting Look: No. 15 Missouri

The Sooners got a career night from freshman guard Dayton Forsythe on Saturday, but it wasn’t enough. Forsythe totaled 25 points, three assists, and two rebounds on 7-9 shooting from the field and 4-5 from deep. However, it was fellow Oklahoma native Sean Pedulla who had the final say, hitting the game-winner and finishing with 26 points to hand the Sooners their second heartbreaking loss of the week.

Oklahoma, now 17-12 (4-12), still has a solid shot at making the NCAA Tournament. According to Bracket Matrix, the Sooners are currently the last team in, appearing in 65 of 104 projected brackets. Their neutral-site non-conference wins over Louisville, Arizona, and Michigan continue to prop up their résumé.

Two wins this week would likely lock Oklahoma into the tournament field, while one victory would still keep them in the conversation—though they’d have work to do next week. Thanks to a weak bubble and their strong non-conference résumé, the path to the Field of 68 remains open.

That path starts with a rematch against No. 15 Missouri, which dominated Oklahoma 82-58 last month in Columbia. The Tigers (21-8, 10-6) will now travel to Norman for the Sooners’ Senior Night, with tipoff set for 7:00 p.m. on SEC Network+.

Here’s a look at what Coach of the Year candidate Dennis Gates’ 15th-ranked Missouri squad — fresh off a 97-93 overtime loss to Vanderbilt — brings to the table and what Oklahoma must do to secure a win that would significantly boost its tournament hopes.

Last time these two teams faced off, Missouri cruised to a 24-point win, led by Mark Mitchell’s 25 points and seven rebounds. Mitchell, who averages 13.9 points and 4.7 rebounds per game, was unstoppable that night, and Oklahoma had no answer for him.

One major factor in that game was Mitchell’s ability to draw fouls—he attempted 18 free throws on his own. As a team, Missouri shot 35 free throws compared to Oklahoma’s 24. Turnovers were also an issue, as the Sooners coughed it up 17 times while the Tigers committed just 12.

For Missouri, it starts with Caleb Grill, who is averaging 14.3 points and 3.6 rebounds while shooting a scorching 43.0% from beyond the arc. When he gets hot, the Tigers become a tough team to beat. That’s been the case in their last two games, as Grill exploded for 28 points against Vanderbilt and followed it up with 22 against South Carolina.

Tamar Bates is another key piece, averaging 13.3 points per game. In Missouri’s most recent game — a 97-93 overtime loss to Vanderbilt — Bates finished with 16 points. He’s a key cog in an offense that ranks 5th nationally in offensive efficiency, operating alongside guards Anthony Robinson II and Tony Perkins.

Robinson II has been on a tear lately. He posted 16 points, five assists, and three steals against Vanderbilt and followed that with 14 points, eight assists, and two steals against South Carolina. His emergence on both ends of the floor is the biggest difference in this Missouri team since they last faced Oklahoma on February 12. Over the past five games, Robinson has averaged 12.4 points, 5.4 assists, and 3.1 steals.

One area where Missouri thrives is getting to the free-throw line. They rank 2nd nationally in free throw rate (47.8%), meaning nearly half of their offensive possessions result in trips to the line. Free throws account for 23.4% of their total points, which ranks 17th in the country and first in the SEC.

Here’s how the Tigers stack up in key national categories:

Missouri is a strong three-point shooting team, hitting 37.6% from beyond the arc—good for 22nd in the country. It starts with their leading scorer, Grill. In the Tigers’ six conference losses, he has made more than two three-pointers just once (and even then, only three). In their 10 conference wins, he has hit at least three triples in eight games.

When Grill is knocking down shots, Missouri wins. When he’s not, they become far more vulnerable. Containing him is priority No. 1, but limiting all of Missouri’s shooters will be key—something Oklahoma, a top-20 team in three-point defense, did well in the last meeting. The Tigers shot just 4-12 (33.3%) from deep in that game.

On the other end, Missouri’s defense doesn’t match its shooting. The Tigers are far from elite at defending the perimeter, which could work in Oklahoma’s favor. The Sooners have been red-hot from deep, shooting 31-73 (42.4%) across their last three games.

Despite two losses last week, the Sooners largely held their own—and that started with the backcourt. Most recently against Ole Miss, it was Forsythe who erupted, pouring in 25 points on an absurdly efficient 7-9 from the field and 4-5 from beyond the arc.

“Obviously, he made some shots, but even some other things he did. Some of the passes he made,” said Porter Moser. “The toughness he plays with. He energizes everybody because they look at Dayton and know he’s gonna play his tail off.”

But it hasn’t just been Forsythe. Duke Miles delivered in big moments and was instrumental in getting the team going on Saturday, finishing with 15 points on an impressive 5-8 from the field and 2-3 from deep.

Alongside Forsythe and Miles, the Sooners have seen their best four-game stretch from Jeremiah Fears in conference play. On Saturday, he contributed 13 points and seven assists, and against Kentucky, he put up 18 points, seven rebounds, and six assists.

When multiple guards are clicking, Oklahoma has proven it can put itself in position to win—they just haven’t finished. Now, they’ll need Fears, Miles, Forsythe, and even Kobe Elvis to step up again this week, starting Wednesday night against Missouri.

Missouri ranks sixth in the nation in steal percentage, forcing turnovers on 14.2% of defensive possessions. The Tigers, thrive on disrupting opposing offenses—especially their point guard, Robinson II. Simply put, Oklahoma can’t afford to cough it up 15+ times in this game.

Mississippi State is the second-best SEC team in forcing steals, behind only Missouri, yet Oklahoma handled that pressure well, committing just 11 turnovers in their matchup. The Sooners will need a similar level of composure Wednesday night. Not only can they ill afford wasted possessions, but giving the nation’s fifth-ranked offense extra opportunities is a recipe for disaster.

Not an OUInsider.com premium member? Sign up today to get loads of inside information on Oklahoma football, softball, basketball, and recruiting, all for just a few dollars a month. Click HERE to get started!

Follow us on Twitter @OUInsider and on Instagram @ouinsiderofficial!

Subscribe on YouTube by clicking here for daily video content on all things Oklahoma!