As the 2025 US Open opens its doors on Sunday, August 24, defending women’s champion Aryna Sabalenka and former men’s champion Daniil Medvedev both face compelling early-round battles that pose significant challenges to their progress.
Aryna Sabalenka: Defending with Pressure on Her Shoulders
Sabalenka, ranked world number one and the reigning champion, seeks to become the first woman in over a decade to defend her US Open title. Throughout 2025, her campaign has been impressive yet bittersweet—finishing as runner-up at both the Australian and French Opens and exiting in the semi-finals at Wimbledon.
Her first-round opponent, Rebeka Masarova, is no pushover. The Swiss player pushed Sabalenka to a tiebreak in their only prior meeting in June at the Berlin Tennis Open. Despite this, prediction models overwhelmingly favor Sabalenka: Stats Insider gives her a 91% win probability, while other forecasts put her chances even higher.
Sabalenka has displayed formidable form on hard courts this season—including recent deep runs—and entered the US Open with an 82% winning percentage at Flushing Meadows. Still, the weight of expectations and the unique pressure of defending a Grand Slam title add layers of extra difficulty.
Daniil Medvedev: A Familiar Foe Awaits
On the men’s side, Medvedev enters as the 13th seed, pursuing a return to form after disappointing Grand Slam showings this year—first-round exits at both the French Open and Wimbledon, and a second-round departure at the Australian Open.
His opponent, Benjamin Bonzi of France, is a particularly thorny challenge—he has beaten Medvedev in both of their past encounters, including a win at Wimbledon earlier this year. Reflecting on his Wimbledon loss, Medvedev admitted, “I was surprised by his level… whatever I did on the court… everything he did was tough for me to play.”
Medvedev’s struggles this season—a stark contrast to his past consistency—raise concerns. His win-loss record, along with a trio of early Grand Slam exits, underscore his precarious form heading into New York.
Summary Table
| Player | Seed | Opponent | Recent Form & Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | 1 | Rebeka Masarova | US Open defending champ; strong 2025 yet burdened by expectations; challenged by Masarova previously |
| Daniil Medvedev | 13 | Benjamin Bonzi | Former US Open champ; poor year overall and has lost twice to Bonzi, including at Wimbledon |
Final Thoughts
Sabalenka enters with both momentum and pressure—her route begins with a notably tricky opponent in Masarova. Although she is widely tipped to advance in straight sets, her ability to manage the occasion and avoid early-upset nerves will be critical.
Medvedev, meanwhile, faces both a challenging opponent and his own fragile form. Bonzi’s previous victories over him place Medvedev firmly in the underdog position. For him, this match may prove to be a crucial test of mental fortitude as much as tennis ability.
Both stars must navigate demanding first-round tests if they hope to mount serious runs at Flushing Meadows.
