It’s hard to describe the improbability of what Michigan basketball is doing.
The No. 13 Wolverines sit atop the Big Ten at 14-3 in league play, having gone 9-2 in their past 11.
It’s the best mark in the league over that span … but not one of those wins have come easily.
All nine have come by four points or less. That includes both games this week: A three-point win Monday at Nebraska in U-M’s worst offensive performance of the season, and a two-pointer at home Thursday vs. Rutgers to avoid a potential Quad 3 loss.
The Wolverines are all too aware of their slim margins since Jan. 19, especially as Thursday’s win, on a Nimari Burnett buzzer-beater, may have been the most fortunate result yet.
“We’ve got to find the right buttons to push to play better,” head coach Dusty May said. “It’s just been really odd we’ve had all that misfortunate happen and then be, so, I guess, I don’t want to say, I guess a little bit of luck down the stretch with guys missing free throws … and whatever the case. It usually balances out.
“This thing has been like a long day at the dentist. But we’re going to figure out a way to get out of this dental chair and win this game.”
Let’s take a look back at Michigan’s last nine trips to the dentist, er, victories, and assess how U-M was able to prevail, while considering the odds of U-M winning based on their lowest win expectancy’ after halftime.
*Via ESPN win probability metric.
Jan 19: U-M 80, Northwestern 76 (OT) — 38.2%
The low point: Down 61-58, 4:58 left.
The finish: After Vlad Goldin tied the game with a three-point play on the next possession. the Wolverines and Wildcats went back and forth well into overtime, with U-M gaining its edge by going 9-for-10 at the free throw line and keeping Northwestern from hitting any of its five shots from the field.
Jan. 27: U-M 76, Penn State 72 — 21.0%
The low point: Down 72-67, 1:50 left.
The finish: Following a timeout by May, Tre Donaldson took over to author a 9-0 run — a layup by Roddy Gayle Jr. on a back-cut and then seven straight points by Donaldson: an elbow jumper, a 3-pointer from the right wing and, finally, two free throws to ice it.
Odds of winning both games? 8.02%.
Feb. 1: U-M 66, Rutgers 63 — 61.8%
The low point: Up 46-44, 7:31 left.
The finish: The Wolverines weren’t ever really in danger of dropping this one at home, especially with Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf combining to score 15 straight in the second half and put the Wolverines up eight with 16 seconds to play. Rutgers hit a pair of 3-pointers, including one at the buzzer, for the window dressing.
Odds of winning all three games? 4.96%.
Feb. 6: U-M 80, Oregon 76 — 62.5%
The low point: Up 74-72, 2:15 left.
The finish: The Wolverines led the Ducks at Crisler by 14 points with just more than 12 minutes to play, but that was down to two points. Danny Wolf missed a 3, but Burnett grabbed the board, kicked it back to him and he was fouled with 15 seconds remaining. Both he and Gayle, 7 seconds later, hit their free throws to put the Ducks away.
Odds of winning all four games? 3.1%.
Feb. 8: U-M 70, Indiana 67 — 42.6%
The low point: Tied at 59, 3:15 left.
The finish: In May’s return to his alma mater, a blowout nearly became a collapse, as a 17-point lead vanished. But IU’s Luke Goode missed an open 3, then Goldin threw down a slam on a handoff by Wolf, and U-M padded its lead with free throws. Michigan led by six with 2 seconds left before an Anthony Leal 60-foot heave made it a three-point game (and covered the 3.5-point spread).
Odds of winning all five games? 1.32%.
Feb. 11: U-M 75, Purdue 73 — 10.2%
The low point: Down 48-38, 14:22 left.
The finish: The biggest victory of the year, and revenge for a 27-point January loss to the Boilermakers, was fueled by a 21-9 run to take a two-point lead. U-M was up six with 39 seconds left when Purdue’s Braden Smith sandwiched two 3-pointers around a pair of Wolf free throws to make it a one-possession game. Back at the line with 6 seconds left, Wolf missed two shots, giving Smith a chance to heave it from 35 feet. But the ball clanged off the rim.
Odds of winning all six games? 0.135%.
Feb. 16: U-M 86, Ohio State 83 — 46.5%
The low point: Up 84-83, 0:32 left.
The finish: U-M found itself in an dogfight with the Buckeyes in Columbus, with OSU taking the lead with less than 10 minutes to play. After a U-M rally, OSU had its chance, but Bruce Thornton missed an open 6-footer with 2 seconds left and U-M’s Rubin Jones got the board and a pair of free throws.
Odds of winning all seven games? 0.06%.
Feb. 16: U-M 49, Nebraska 46 — 38.1%
The low point: Down 39-37, 6:32 left.
The finish: Was U-M safe when it took control of a rockfight with an 8-0 run behind consecutive Wolf buckets and a deep 3 from L.J. Cason? Nope! It was down to a one-point game with 12 seconds left when Gayle missed the front end of a 1-and-1 trip to the line. Nebraska then got an open shot up from the exact spot of Burnett’s game-winner against Rutgers, but Connor Essegian couldn’t hit it, and, after a pair of Donaldson free throw makes, Berke Buyuktuncel missed another 3-point try, the 22nd ‘Huskers miss beyond the arc in 28 tries.
Odds of winning all eight games? .024%.
Feb. 16: U-M 84, Rutgers 82 — 5.3%
The low point: Down 82-81, 3.3 seconds left.
The finish: After a 12-point deficit with just over eight minutes to play U-M held Rutgers to eight points the rest of the way. Still, Michigan was down when May called timeout to draw a play for Wolf. It didn’t work, but he found Burnett at the left wing, who drilled a 30-footer as time expired.
Odds of winning all nine games? .0013% — or about 1-in-77,000.
The big picture
So, is there a pattern? Not really.
There were an almost equal mix of blown leads by the Wolverines and late rallies by them. The heroes have been numerous: Donaldson, Gayle, Wolf, Goldin, Burnett and even Cason have all contributed major moments in these victories. Michigan has come back from down double digits at home twice, overcame a five-point deficit with less than two minutes to play vs. Penn State and topped Nebraska on the road with just 49 points.
Of course, the Wolverines’ margins have gotten even slimmer: their past five have come by three points or fewer.
It’s as improbable a run as any in recent memor, but with three games remaining U-M is right where it wants to be.
Now, perhaps it’s time for somebody on staff to purchase a lottery ticket.
Tony Garcia is the Michigan Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan basketball has 9 straight wins by 4 or less. That’s hard to do
