The Las Vegas Raiders are once again entering a period of transition, and this time the changes could have major ripple effects across the league. With a new regime in place and the No. 1 overall pick expected to be used on Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, the future of veteran signal-caller Geno Smith appears increasingly uncertain. If the Raiders move on from Smith and his $75 million deal, two quarterback-needy teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings, could emerge as logical landing spots.
Raiders Preparing for a New Direction at Quarterback
Las Vegas is widely expected to reset at the most important position in football. Selecting Mendoza with the first overall pick would signal a full organizational pivot toward youth and long-term development. In that scenario, Geno Smith becomes expendable, especially after a disappointing 2025 campaign.
Smith struggled significantly last season, throwing 19 touchdowns against a league-high 17 interceptions while taking 55 sacks. He finished with an 84.7 passer rating in what many evaluators viewed as one of the least efficient quarterback performances in the league. Matt Okada of NFL.com echoed that sentiment, writing:
“With the No. 1 draft pick in hand and a new regime in place, it’s a near-lock the Raiders will be moving in a new direction at quarterback this offseason. It also didn’t help that Smith finished the 2025 season with 19 touchdowns, a league-high 17 interceptions and 55 sacks, an atrocious 84.7 passer rating and what was undoubtedly some of the worst tape in the league (at least according to my eyes).”
Financially, the Raiders could save $8 million by releasing Smith, though it would trigger an $18.5 million dead-cap charge. Given Las Vegas reportedly holds over $90 million in cap space, absorbing that hit would not cripple the franchise. A trade would be ideal, but considering Smith’s contract and performance, a release feels more plausible.
Steelers Could Need a Veteran Insurance Plan
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ quarterback situation remains fluid. Aaron Rodgers’ future with the franchise is unresolved, and if he retires or departs, Pittsburgh will need a veteran presence to stabilize the room.
Will Howard and Mason Rudolph provide depth, but neither represents a proven, reliable starter entering 2026. Smith, despite his regression, still offers starting experience and could serve as a bridge option while the Steelers search for a long-term answer.
Head coach Mike McCarthy has a strong track record of maximizing quarterback talent. While Smith would represent a downgrade from Rodgers at this stage of their careers, he could provide functional competence within a structured system, especially if supported by Pittsburgh’s defense and run game.
Vikings May Seek Competition for McCarthy
Minnesota presents a different but equally intriguing scenario. J.J. McCarthy, once viewed as the franchise’s quarterback of the future, has yet to firmly establish himself as a long-term solution. The Vikings could look to bring in a veteran who can either push McCarthy or take over if development stalls.
Kevin O’Connell has previously revitalized quarterbacks in difficult situations, and Minnesota’s offensive infrastructure is significantly stronger than what Smith worked with in Las Vegas. The Raiders’ offense in 2025 was plagued by protection issues, inconsistent wide receiver play, and schematic struggles under Chip Kelly.
It is reasonable to believe Smith could rebound in a more stable environment. During his tenure with the Seattle Seahawks, Smith won 28 games over five seasons and led the team to the postseason. That version of Smith was efficient, composed, and capable of executing within structure.
In Minnesota, surrounded by stronger offensive talent and better protection, Smith could potentially regain that form. If he does, the Vikings could quickly re-enter playoff contention in 2026.
Risk Versus Reward for Pittsburgh and Minnesota
Neither the Steelers nor the Vikings would be signing an elite quarterback if they pursued Smith. However, they would be acquiring a battle-tested veteran who has shown he can function at a playoff-caliber level under the right circumstances.
The central question is whether Smith’s 2025 struggles were purely individual decline or largely the product of systemic dysfunction in Las Vegas. If it is the latter, a change of scenery could produce a short-term resurgence.
For the Raiders, moving forward with a rookie quarterback signals a full reset. For the Steelers and Vikings, monitoring Smith’s status represents due diligence in a league where quarterback stability often determines postseason fate.
If Las Vegas Raiders ultimately releases its $75 million quarterback, expect Pittsburgh and Minnesota to be among the first teams evaluating whether Geno Smith deserves one more opportunity to prove he can still win games in the NFL.
